Photo: Collected
Tea, one of the most widely consumed beverages globally, is cultivated on over 5.27 million hectares of land and provides a source of income for millions of low-income families. However, the effects of future emission scenarios on the suitability of areas for tea production are poorly understood, and any adverse outcome under climate change scenarios can affect millions of households and the tea industry.
Tea is now cultivated in over 50 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical countries with an annual average rainfall of 1270 mm or above. Between 1991 and 2010, the tea industry witnessed exponential growth, and cultivation expanded by 44 percent globally. Additionally, per capita tea consumption has increased by 2.5 percent in recent years, driving significant growth in the tea industry.
A recent landmark international study published in Environmental and Sustainability Indicators (May 2025) issues a stark warning: Climate change will significantly redraw the contours of the global tea industry by mid-century. The research, conducted by scientists from Assam University in India, the University of Wisconsin, and Addis Ababa University, utilizes cutting-edge climate modeling and high-resolution suitability mapping to present one of the most detailed forecasts to date.
Under both moderate and high-emission scenarios, the study outlines how traditional tea-growing zones will shift, shrink, or, in some cases, expand as global temperatures rise and weather patterns change. By 2050, more than half of the world’s top 20 tea-producing countries are projected to see notable declines in the availability of land highly suitable for tea cultivation. Kenya, one of the leading exporters of black tea, could lose up to 26.2 percent of its optimal tea-growing zones, with average suitability dropping by as much as 39 percent.
In India, the impact of climate change on tea production is more complex and nuanced. According to the study, some models forecast a slight decline of just over 2 percent in highly suitable areas, while others point to gains, particularly in higher altitudes, suggesting potential upslope shifts. This variability highlights the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability of tea production in India.
Sri Lanka, another major player in the global tea industry, may see a 14 percent drop in optimal areas by 2050, worsening to nearly 30 percent by 2070. This decline could have significant economic and social impacts on the country's tea industry, which is a major source of employment and revenue.
Even China, the world's largest tea producer, is not immune to the impacts of climate change. Projections show a 4.7 percent reduction in its top-tier tea-growing zones, which could intensify under more severe climate scenarios. This decline could affect the quality and quantity of tea production in China, with potential implications for the global tea market.
"The impact of climate change on tea production in these countries will be significant, and the industry must take proactive measures to adapt to changing climate conditions," says Dr Pradip Baruah, a leading tea industry expert. "This includes investing in climate-resilient tea varieties, improving irrigation systems, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices," Baruah, who retired recently as the chief scientist from Tocklai Tea Research Institute, said.
The study's findings highlight the need for urgent action to address the impacts of climate change on global tea production. By understanding the regional and country-specific impacts of climate change, the tea industry can develop effective adaptation strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability of tea production and protect the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on the industry.
However, the shifting climate also presents new opportunities. Some countries are expected to benefit from altered growing conditions. Turkey, for instance, could see a dramatic 127-130 per cent increase in moderately suitable tea-growing land by 2050, particularly in elevated, cooler regions.
Other countries such as Iran, Rwanda, and Thailand are projected to gain between 11 percent and 27 percent in highly suitable tea cultivation zones, potentially emerging as new tea-producing hubs. See details.
Source: Online/GFMM
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