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Global cereal ending stocks are likely to reach a nine-year high in the 2025-26 marketing year (July-June), with record production expected to drive the increase, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its Grain Market Report. The IGC said in its latest report that global cereal production (wheat and other grains) could reach 2.461 billion tonnes in the 2025-26 season, the highest in history. This is 31 million tonnes more than the November forecast. In addition, cereal ending stocks at the end of the current season are set to increase by 15 million tonnes compared to the previous estimate of 634 million tonnes.
According to the IGC, if the forecast for ending stocks is realized, it will be the fastest increase in stocks since the 2017-18 season. Analysts at the organization said that global cereal production could increase by 6 percent on an annual basis in the 2025-26 marketing year. One of the main reasons for this upward revision is the possibility of increasing corn production in the United States and China. In addition, there is a potential increase in wheat production in Canada and Argentina at this time, and an indication of increasing barley production in Canada and Australia.
According to the IGC forecast, global wheat production in the 2025-26 season could reach a record 842 million tons, which is 5 percent more than the previous year. At the same time, corn production is likely to increase by 6 percent compared to the previous year to reach a record 1313 million tons. The organization also said in its updated report that global consumption of wheat and coarse grains in the current marketing year could reach a record 2416 million tons.
However, a different picture has been seen in the soybean market this marketing year. According to the IGC forecast, global soybean production at this time may decrease slightly compared to the previous year's record of 427 million tons. However, soybean consumption may increase by 3 percent on a year-on-year basis. Total consumption of the oilseed may reach a record 432 million tons at this time. At this time, the total consumption of demand in the food, animal feed, and industrial sectors will play a role in increasing, said the sector stakeholders. The IGC said that global rice production in the 2025-26 marketing year is likely to remain almost unchanged compared to the previous year. However, due to the impact of population growth, the consumption of food grains could reach a record 538 million tons during this time. The organization also said that global imports and exports of wheat, coarse grains, soybeans, and rice may increase slightly in the 2025-26 marketing season.
Source: Online/GFMM
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